June 2025

“It is not possible for one man to hold another man down in the ditch without staying down there with him.”
-Booker T Washington

Thank you to all who turned out for the Collins and Krank Investor’s Event! We had a fabulous turnout, and the enthusiasm this year was fantastic. It seems we get more people every year, and the speakers continue to get us thinking and making changes in our lives. We received many comments. This year the room was not “too cold.” The food was fantastic. Many of you commented that the emcee did a great job of keeping us all on time. John, our Navy SEAL, informed and entertained with stories in a way that many who have heard talks from the SEALs before said was entirely new and pertinent. We handed out a fabulous Collins and Krank t-shirt with a custom design for the event to attendees. The design received many compliments. For those who did not attend this year but would like one of the shirts, please call our office with your size before they are gone.

The market seems to me to be in a bit of a trading range. We have moved back up to the area we were before President Trump’s “Liberation Day” but not higher. The S&P 500 has found a ceiling of resistance in that 6,000 area numerous times now and cannot seem to get the umph to move meaningfully above that. There are many indicators that would lead us to believe that this is a very strong market, but that pesky ceiling isn’t one of them. There are also many indicators that say proceed with caution, things are not as great as they may look on the surface. We’ve got all sorts of negative headlines (they always are). Feel free to call if you want to know more about either case. The trading range and mixed signals fit if you stop and think for a moment about how we got here. The market was getting weaker all last year. The tariff trade talk accelerated things to a full-blown selloff. Yet the administration has been taking measures that are positive for the economy at the same time, hence the rapid market recovery. It is possible for both things to be true. Some sectors benefit from the positive, while others are caught in the crosshairs of the negative ripples. We continue to try and position the portfolio in the ways we think can lessen the negative impacts. We of course try to balance that so we don’t miss out on the potential that may lie just beyond a resolution. I find it encouraging that the negative headlines have not tilted us to the downside for this trading range. It increases the odds that as some of the looming uncertainty is resolved we may see an upside breakout. What a tightrope we walk sometimes.

Astute observers will have noticed us dipping our foot (slightly more than just our toes) into international waters a bit more. This may seem counterintuitive given the trade commotion, yet we have found strength and potential for growth in certain international markets. Remember, we let the market be our guide. We don’t make guesses about the economy or trade talk outcomes. It is notable that we would lean internationally when for many years we have shied away from those markets for reasons of additional risk as well as lack of real growth. One reason for this strength is the weakening dollar. For years, the United States has had a strong dollar policy. This has given us buying power to purchase international goods, which obviously we do a lot of. It also has been nice if you have traveled internationally. Our dollar can take us far. However, from an investment standpoint it has not been advantageous. Currency risk is one of the additional problems of international investments, specifically if our currency is rising. For example, if the Swiss market goes up 10% but their currency goes down 5%, the result is only a 5% return in USD.

The value of our dollar has been going down ever since they printed boatloads of money and threw it out of helicopters during COVID. This means it may take more dollars to buy things. It also means that our goods become more appealing to other countries from a price perspective and that their markets become more attractive to us. We don’t know if this will be a new long-term trend with international markets finally having their day in the sun. If it is, the equity strategists at many Wall Street firms will finally be right after pounding the table on international for the last 15 years. We, as always, will take our cues from the markets themselves. If they continue to show signs of strength, we will continue to be interested.

We are also watching many economic signals of interest. We have learned recently that the PCE index continues to come down. This is a key inflation measure the Fed watches closely. CORE PCE was almost 6% back in 2022 but came in around 2.5% in April. Although there are signs of the consumer weakening, real consumer spending was up 3.2% from last year and still strong. Yet where are they getting the money? Consumer delinquencies are also rising. The percent of auto loan balances seriously delinquent is the highest since early in the COVID crisis. For credit card balances, it’s the worst since 2009. Student loan delinquencies are higher too, as many borrowers are finally required to make payments.

More mixed messages. You can see why the stock market is not sure which way is up. Let us not forget that early in July the “90 days” is up, and the tariff deadline is upon us. Also, there is something about a tax bill that the market has already priced in as the law of the land, which is set to pass or not pass around that same time. Throw in a few military conflicts around the globe, and you can see it is just another slow relaxing summer.

At least it should be for you and your family. I hope this letter assures you we are keeping an eye on things, so you don’t have to. In fact, read this again, call if you have questions, and turn off the news until September. You’ll be glad you did.

Have a super day!

Sincerely,

Brien Krank
Financial Advisor, RJFS
Senior Portfolio Manager
Managing Partner – Collins and Krank

Hear me on the radio Wednesday mornings from 7:35am to 7:55am on The Flag 1100 AM and WDAY 970 AM.

Opinions expressed are those of Brien Krank or of the author in the attached articles and not necessarily those of Raymond James. All opinions are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is not guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Individual investor’s results will vary. Raymond James is not affiliated with Nick Murray or First Trust.